The Eagle Has Landed, A Little Short

Final thought for today, cause I know everyone's getting tired of me. Anyone out there get screwed by Westbrook's flop on the one yard line?

In my playoff matchup, my opponent had Brian and although I had the match easily in hand by that point, I can't image what I, much less the guy I was playing, would have done if it was closer when that happened. All I know is someone would have been doing a lot of subsequent drywall work or at least hiring the crazy, homeless guy who hangs out in front of the supermarket all the time to do it.

I've got to give it to him, it was a smart play. Basically ending the game like that was something I'm not sure I could have done. The game would have been over either way, how do you not take the points? I guess Brian's decision was the only sure fire way, but good God man!

Even the wife understood the significants of that play. We're sitting on the couch, her folding laundry like a good lass and me riveted to TV and laptop, when, just after the play, she turns and says,

"Isn't that going to piss off fantasy owners?"

To which I replied,

"Yes, baby. Yes it will."

Such a good girl. Such a pretty girl.

This D Stinks

Matt Buser, over at Yahoo!, won't stop sending us emails asking that we add him to the list of Gurus next year. Maybe that's not really true but he did make a pretty cool little table that could prove useful to some of you. Average fantasy points allowed, per team, through week 14 of the season. Check it out.

Matchup Management (12.12.07)

I've been looking around. Can you tell it's been an excruciatingly slow day at work?

A Year of Snow, A Year of Plenty

Just because we haven't featured much on our Gurus lately doesn't mean we've forgotten about them. In fact, we've been keeping close tabs on them, though not actually tabulating. I've been using Jamey's weekly sit/start as somewhat of a guide each week, choosing to ignore some of the more asinine recommendations. And Jeremy's been masturbating to the stock photo of Eric Karabell displayed on his weblog over at ESPN.com for the better part of a week straight now. Obviously, he's getting pretty chaffed and crampy. Typing with one hand proved too much for him and thus explains his M.I.A. status.

Apparently, our boy Jamey spent Sunday night harping or possibly lamenting or maybe both on the same things I was harping on yesterday in his weekly Four Down segment. And, no, it has nothing to do with four downs babies. What? You thought we just read the weekly predictions? Fuck that! We're all over this shit. Just last week I sat outside Jamey's house all night waiting for him to come home so I could...nevermind. Point is, I stepped on a nail crossing the road - ninja shoes don't have a thick sole - and had to abandon the mission. Let's just leave it at committed, ok?

He used the same examples I did, adding Joseph Addia to the list along with everyone from the Brown's game against the Bills. He gave the latter a pass based on the weather, I can only assume because four inches of snow is hard to play in? What is this pee-wee ball? In college we'd play football every time it snowed a significant amount and we were damn good. Sure, it wasn't a professional game and we were all wasted off our asses but I'll be damned if we didn't bring it.

Which, in a very round-about way, brings me to my point: You've got to check the weather report, people. It's really the X factor that can affect your entire lineup. There are simply some conditions that are too much to overcome, even for the best. With each winter weekend offering up an opportunity for disagreeable weather, it doesn't take a meteorologist to figure out what to do with you lineup.

Weather affects the game well before players take the field. If there's a less than favorable forecast, coaches will change their strategies to attempt to counteract the weather's influence. The Patriots game is a perfect example. The Pats, a throw first, run second team flipped the universe on its end and went run first because of a strong wind. Speaking of wind, does anything else dictate a game more, in terms of weather events? The only other comparable situations I can think of are a good amount of snow and having to play at Heinz field. Wind changes everything. It forced the Pats to give Maroney 26 carries, it forced Eli Manning to complete only 18 of 52 pass attempts - "forced" may be a little strong considering it's Eli -and it contributed to there not being a touchdown scored in the Brown vs. Bills game. Wind can take down even the mightiest of quarterbacks, see Tom Brady, and consequently the receiving corp those quarterbacks are heaving the ball towards.

Now, more than ever, you've got to check the game day weather. Hopefully, you're in the playoffs looking to either wrangle in some cash, some respect or maybe a little of both. Don't miss out on the glory or the green because you started the guy playing in a blizzard. If any week was an illustration of that, it's this past one.

Wind - sit the QB and wide receivers and start the running back. Snow - same as wind. Rain - it's been raining all year, you should know what to do.

There you have it. The answer to every type of weather possible. Now, meditate on what you have learned while attempting to autofellate for at least an hour every day until Sunday.

Site News: I haven't given up on the reviews/grading either. I'm off work from this Friday through the new year and I'm hoping to use some of that time for catch up. And if anyone sees Jeremy, please let him know they've released the dogs. Thanks.

Angels Among Us

Well, it seems they are human after all. This weekend, the big boys of fantasy finally decided to come down off their high and mighty cloud and pay us lesser mortals a visit. Maybe it was just a quickie for the holidays - you know, pay a little attention to the friends and family. Maybe they built there Tower of Babal too high and God had to knock them down a peg or two. Maybe Brady got bored and figured he might as well impregnate two or three supermodels in the mean time. Maybe it was opposite day. Maybe they'll head right back up to were they came from. But my theory, and I'm willing to defend this, is they came down for no other reason than to fuck as many fantasy players as possible, right in the ass thick of the playoffs.

Brady throws no touchdowns - inconceivable. Doesn't this guy control the weather with his mind or possibly his manhood. I know he controls the collective will of millions of women with the latter. Just ask my wife.

If there were no touchdowns through the air for "the great one", then his partner in crime must have put up some serious yardage right? Something in the range of 150 to a million? That 79 yards receiving next to Moss' name must be a typo, right?

And what of the leagues other dynamic duo? Surely they pulled up the slack and posted monster numbers. I know, they messed up the stat line and put the "3" in Romo's interception column instead of rightly filing it under the "Touchdown" heading. And if that's the case, then at least two of those three must have been gone to T.O. (the other going, of course, to Witten). He couldn't have bombed two weeks in a row - not the most exciting/loudest player in the game. Wait!? Those really were interceptions and none of them went to T.O. because he's on offense and that's impossible? Shit on a windmill!

Any I'm missing? Judging by the scores around my respective leagues this week, I'd say there are more than a couple I've forgotten.

Sidenote: I won the only playoff game I was in primarily because T.O., T.G. (Tony Gonzalez) and to some extent Ryan Grant all shit the bed. I'd like to send a heartfelt, "Thank you!" to each and every one of them. I was the 4th place team, playing the 1st place team and high scorer in the league. Fantasy football truly is a fickle bitch sometimes. Lucky I didn't end up on the short end of the dick stick like Jeremy.

Bye Bye Birdie

Apparently, when things get tough, the tough get going. And I don't mean moving in the right direction. Or maybe it's the pussies that turn tail and boogy out at the first sign of trouble. Yeah, I think that's closer to the truth, especially in the case of Bobby Petrino. What else could it look like to your everyday football fan. The team hits a rough patch, falls on some hard luck and a quarterback who preferred throwing dogs to footballs and the coach, a day after the owner of the team went on national TV proclaiming faith in him, sneaks out of town in the middle of night to return to the college coaching ranks, leaving nothing but a pitiful note and a bunch of bad memories in his wake. Maybe Bobby's a good coach and maybe he's not. But one thing he's definitely not is a man.

The Atlanta Falcons certainly didn't deserve that kind of treatment. If he didn't want to coach the rest of the year, fine. At least give your employer a little notice. That's what any half decent human being would do. If I wanted to quit my job, I'd at least have the balls to put in my two weeks and work them, no matter who I worked for. It's a little thing called personal ethics and integrity. It's something that fathers teach their sons. It's the right way to go about things. But it looks like Bobby never got those lessons.

Arkansas is sure luck to be getting such an upstanding guy to lead their team. A real life model citizen. A role model for the kids. Just ask the people of Atlanta. I bet they'd elect him mayor of the city if he ran, possibly even if he didn't. In fact, they're probably already planning the parade...for his death. I can't wait for the first game Arkansas finds themselves down at halftime. I bet half the team quits.

Since this is a fantasy site, I'll reign in my vitriol for a bit to discuss the ramifications of Bobby's move. Everyone over at CBS seems to think this is the end of Roddy White's career. Personally, I just can't see it. Petrino was supposedly an offensive genius and that well may be true. I've seen offensive genius' coach NFL teams before - see Brian Billick - and I'm convinced they have very little to do with offensive production. The fact of the matter is that Roddy is the only wide receiver on that team who can catch a damn ball. Michael Jenkins is the Edward Scissor-hands of the NFL and Alge, as much as I like him, has lost more than a few steps over the past two seasons. Roddy's done well thus far considering the cast around him. The quarterback carousel continues its slow death spin to loserville. Chris Redman has looked like their best quarterback all year, which should tell you more than a little something. Yet Roddy still puts up numbers.

Now, don't let me snow you, I'll never purport him as a lock starter every week. But, depending on the league, he's at least a matchup play, especially against teams with good offenses and mediocre defenses. You know the Falcons are going to be down. A lot. Meaning a lot of passing. Couple that with Roddy being the number one, only reliable receiver and he's guaranteed to have a fair share of balls thrown his way.

Basically, what it all boils down to is this: Bobby Petrino's hasty exit will have no affect on the Falcon player's fantasy production or value. And since Roddy is really the only player on the team with more than marginal fantasy value I can confidently say Roddy White will not suffer because of the absence of Bobby Petrino. If I was to go out on limb, I might even say that perhaps this turn of events would spun improved play on the part of the Falcons. Think about it. If you were on that team, wouldn't you want to succeed just to show up the coach that left you mid-season. I know I would and I know Deangelo will try. He's probably dancing a jig right about now. It's like when your girlfriend breaks up with you and you start running all the time and going to the gym just to show her what she's missing out on. Living well is the best revenge.

I won't say go out and pick up as many Falconites as you can, but don't worry about Roddy. Roddy will be fine.

B.O. Line

Prompted by a comment from azhokie -thanks for the comment by way - I got to thinking about offensive lines around the league and their relation to the fantasy football world.

I think most would agree that a good O-line will do nothing but help your favorite fantasy players succeed. I know, personally, I rank every team's offensive line, as part of my cheat sheet predraft preparation. So, I thought it might be embarrassing fun to compare how I ranked the lines preseason to how they've actually performed thus far. Unfortunately, I couldn't find my spreadsheet due to an incident in which I procured a new computer here at work. But fear not because I'm pretty sure I emailed it back and forth to myself a couple of times during it's generation. I'll look into that when I get home.

Therefore, instead of tripping down memory lane, I figured the best and most logical course of action is to take a peek into the future with my official o-line rankings for next year. Don't ask how I decided the rankings. I don't feel like going into a long explanation of how I wrote each team's name on a piece of paper, put all the pieces of paper in a hat and drew them out at random. I also don't want to admit that, although it's wasn't a competition, I somehow lost. Go figure.

Here's the list:

1. New England
2. Dallas
3. Indianapolis
4. Pittsburgh
5. Green Bay
6. New Orleans
7. Tampa Bay
8. Cincinnati
9. Denver
10. Jacksonville
11. San Diego
12. Tennessee
13. Washington
14. Houston
15. Cleveland
16. Minnesota
17. Buffalo
18. New York (Giants)
19. Arizona
20. Baltimore
21. Seattle
22. Oakland
23. Carolina
24. Philadelphia
25. Miami
26. Atlanta
27. New York (Jets)
28. Detroit
29. St. Louis
30. Kansas City
31. Chicago
32. San Fransisco

Obviously, this projection is nothing more than a guess, based on line play from this year in conjunction with a little thought as to how they will do in the future. Future trades, free-agent acquisitions, injuries, ect. have been excluded because, though it pains me to say this, I cannot see the future nor did I feel like investing the time and effort it would require to research each players contract situation. I'll leave that shit up to the professionals. They're getting paid for it.

And, just so you know, I didn't randomly pull names out of my ass. If you want to see how the teams rank, in the categories I chose to grade on, you can check out my fancy spreadsheet here.

I'll try to post my preseason offensive line ranking if I can find them later.

Not in My Platoon, Soldier

To further illustrate the plight of the running back this season, I wanted to highlight Ronnie Brown. And not because he tore his ACL, ending his season in the 7th week. Instead, take a look at your league and check out where he ranks against the rest of the running backs and I'm talking everybody. If you're in a standard scoring league - no yardage bonus, funky touchdown schemes, ect. - he should be thirteenth or somewhere close. At least in the top 15.

Let me say that again, a guy who hasn't played since week 7 is still in the top 15. It's week 14 people. That's absolutely unbelievable. It's ludicrous.

Of course, Ronnie is a very good running back and the things he did before he got hurt were nothing short of incredible. Playing on a losing team that was constantly behind with nary a whisper of a quarterback all season, he still averaged 86 rushing yards per game and 55 receiving. He scored 5 touchdowns in 7 games. Very impressive numbers without a doubt and if he could have stayed healthy it would have been interesting to see how his season, along with the dolphin's, turned out.

But really, in twice the games don't you think more people would have passed his 125 fantasy points by now? There are some big names sitting behind him, some of which will need the remainder of the season or their natural lives to catch up. Frank Gore, Willie Parker, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson all sit on a lower rung. And I know what your going to say: But, Ray, some of those guys were injured as well. To which I would respond: You're right. Some were. But all of them have played in at least 8 games, including Jackson and LJ. That's one more game than Ronnie and they're at least, if you're very generous and assume they can lay down a 20 point game, one game away from his point total.

Overall, I think it speaks volumes about the state of the running back in the NFL. After this season, we may have to take a step back and reevaluate their importance in the grand scheme of fantasy. The lone gun runner is all but extinct giving way to dreaded platoons. I'm sure those Laurence Maroney owners can tell you all about how much they enjoy the 8 to 10 touches he gets a game.

Check out this interesting article from earlier this year. I think it's evident the trend continues.

Scrumming the Line

Jeremy's Back

That's right folks, the prodical son has returned. Jeremy, aka "two holes and a heartbeat", posted today for the first time in who knows how long. He didn't really tell us anything but that's not why we liked him anyway. We liked him for his boyish charm and hands so soft they'd make an angel cry. Welcome back buddy!

Continuing My VT Rant From Yesterday

Since you're all such good followers of the cult called professional sports, like me, I'm sure by now you know how the BCS rankings shook out. Honestly, I'm fine with how the national championship ended up. That should be a good game, though Ohio State kinda reminds me of a common fluffer getting the starring role in a Debbie Does Dallas video. One really shouldn't be able to back into a national championship like they did. Note to every other team in the nation: Screw strength of schedule and book puff-ball non-conference games. Just make sure, unlike Michigan, you can actually win them. Is a shitty non-conference schedule a requirement in the Big 10?

The Hokies ended up No. 3, thanks in no part to the voters who put them at 5th and 6th. Being ranked 1st in the computer poll was the only thing that pulled them through, but hey I take it. I trust the computers way more than anyone who has a vote in the Harris or the Coaches Poll. I'm not going to bemoan a matchup vs. Kansas mostly because we have a really good shot at winning - something Tech has struggled with from time to time in the bowl game. What I really have a problem with was, again, the press coverage. Yesterday, during a three hour bowl selection special on ESPN, the VT vs. Kansas game was only talked about once, excluding the initial announcement of the Orange Bowl selections. One damn two minute discussion for a BCS game. Not only that, but the segment didn't air until 10:27 pm, thirty minutes from the end of the show. By that time they had already aired and re-aired interviews with both Les Miles and Jim Tressel. Not that the national championship game isn't important but the Orange isn't the Gaylord Music Bowl over here. Fuck, I think they even talked about that one before they got to the Orange. Plus, when the ESPN experts finally sloughed their way over to the game all they talked about was how Kansas didn't deserve to be there and how much the situation in Corso's words, "Sucked". Then they talked on the phone to Kansas' fat coach who looked like he had eaten half to three quarters of his offensive line. Fuck you ESPN!

Fallen Heroes

As Jeremy mentioned, the deadskins...cough...Redskins (is it wrong to call them that now?) held their first game since Sean Talyor's death. I thought they did a really nice job of honoring him with the video and the ring of honor. Unfortunately, they couldn't give him the honor of a win, with a seemingly senile Joe Gibbs inexplicably calling two timeouts in a row to move Lindell's field goal attempt from a 51 yarder to a much easier 36-yard game winning attempt. Of course, he made the kick, much to the chagrin of Skins fans and the delight of Jeremy. I know Joe was out of football for a while but hasn't that rule always been around? Like since the dawn of time?

Somehow the whole thing got me to thinking about what I would do if my favorite player died, assuming I had a favorite player. I've got a couple friends who are Skins fans and I know for a fact at least one of them would tell you that Sean was/is his favorite player. So what does he do now? Is it disrespectful to arbitrarily pick another guy as your number 1? Who do you cheer for? Personally, I think I would, at minimum, boil the guy's jersey and eat it with a nice glass of chianti. Do you think there's any way to get at the eyes without exhuming the body? It's the only way to absorb the soul. I've got to think I'd hold off on picking a new guy, choosing instead to applaud the team as a whole, until the end of the season out of respect. Moving on is important but doing so too fast, like a gold-digger reveling in her newly gained millions, just looks like you never cared in the first place.

Quick hits

• NY Football Giants RB Derrick Ward apparently broke a bone in his leg during Sunday's game. Likely out for season. Adjust your rosters accordingly.

• Went to the Bills-'Skins game yesterday (as a Bills fan). A nice memorial setup outside the stadium where fans had left flowers, shirts, jerseys, etc. 'Skins handed out towels with Taylor's #21 on it to all fans. Showed a memorial video before the game (I wasn't in my seat in time, so I missed it), and the 'Skins started the game with 10 defensive players (Bills had a 22-yard run on that play). Was a nice atmosphere for the most part, saw lots of #21 Bills jerseys (Willis McGahee) with tape over McGahee and "Taylor" handwritten. Wish I would have thought of that before I left.

Gone Bowling

Although by 8:30 tonight, this argument will be inconsequential I'm still going to make it. And I know I'm showing my colors and immodestly showing my bias by campaigning for VT in the national championship but my ultimate goal is here is to ever so slightly offset the equally immodest bias of the national sports covering media outlets. Outlets like ESPN and CBS that constantly push, for reasons unknown to myself, for one team or another despite the facts or reality.

Last night, Sportscenter and College Gameday Final profiled all the teams with a shot to squeak into the national championship, most likely to play the Ohio State Buckeyes. Of course, the Buckeyes are one of the teams ESPN is constantly pushing on us, singing their praises every chance they get, year in and year out. However, I do believe Ohio State is deserving of the spot, being the third ranked team, so I'm not going to include them in this argument. Each respective show had mentioned VT in passing when listing the potential candidates for the national championship and had subsequently profiled the teams, even going so far as the televise telephone conversations with some of the coaches. I was waiting and waiting for them to profile VT just like they had each of the other teams. Finally, the clock struck 2am and still nothing. They barely mentioned Kansas either, and no disrespect here, but Kansas played no one all season. They should have been treated like a good mid-major by the pollsters and placed somewhere in the middle of the top twenty-five to languish. I'm sure an Kansas wouldn't agree with me, but we all have our opinions right?

Needless to say, the big two ESPN pushed were LSU and USC. LSU I can understand. They won their conference championship, they've played one of, if not thee, hardest schedule in all of college football and their two loses came in triple overtime to ranked teams. There resume is pretty damn strong and honestly, I think they're the ones who'll win the spot.

USC on the other hand deserves no consideration for one reason and one reason only. The lost to Stanford. You cannot go to national championship game if you've lost to Stanford. I'm sure it's in the rule book somewhere. If you need more convincing, look at their schedule. They only played four ranked teams all year and got beat by one (Oregon). One of those ranked teams was Cal (ranked #24 at the time) who, in a purely USC moment, also lost to Stanford this week. And if you need yet another reason, they didn't exactly blowout UCLA last night. And yet there I was, sitting on the couch last night, listening as Pete Carroll calls in to Sportscenter and politics his team for the national championship. If I was answering the phones at the ESPN studios, I would have hung up on him because there's no way it wasn't a prank call. If ESPN wasn't so up Pete Carroll's rose-scented ass, he would have never gotten on TV and USC would have never been mentioned as a legitimate contender for the national championship because they're not.

Which reminds me of the other "it" word being thrown around by the ESPN "analysts" to describe teams: hot. USC was mentioned multiple times as one of these supposed "hot" teams. So what's the definition of "hot" you might ask? Good question. Does winning four games in row, only scoring more than 24 in one of those games, make a team "hot"? Does it matter that two of the four were unranked and one of the ranked teams was the aforementioned Cal to whom they almost lost (24-17 final)? So unconvincingly winning games over lesser opponents is what makes you "hot", even the hottest team in the nation? I would have never guessed.

The other school described as "hot" was Georgia and with good reason. Comparing USC and UGA, should give us a better understanding of the ridiculousness of this whole thing, don't you think? UGA won its last 6 games in a row, three of those opponents were ranked. Remember that's only one less than USC played all year and as many as they beat. They were all conference games, something even more impressive considering they play in the SEC, arguably the best conference in all of college football. They beat Florida, the reigning champs, Auburn, a rival, and Kentucky. Over that stretch they averaged over 30 points a game and against Florida and Auburn they broke the 40 barrier. That sounds a little more like "hot" to me. Unfortunately, especially for UGA fans, I think Georgia is going to get screwed the most by the BCS. They might be one of the best teams in the country right now and I think they are, but I doubt the voters will reward them with a well deserved shot at the national championship. If everyone thinks you should have to win your conference championship to play for the national title, why didn't they just make it a rule?

So we've covered LSU, USC, Kansas and UGA. Who else is getting the championship spotlight that my not deserve it. I guess that just leave Oklahoma. The team that Mark May, ESPN college football analyst token black guy, said should be in the national championship. A team ranked 9th in the BCS standings. They'd have to move up 7 spots, jumping all the teams I've already mentioned. Sure, the win last night was impressive but it makes me wonder what the hell happened against the powerhouse that is Texas Tech? Or what about the stunning meltdown in Boulder? Texas Tech was only three weeks ago. Are we going to put a team in the national championship that's as inconsistent as these guys are? Hell, they only played two ranked teams all year, Texas and Missouri twice. You can't lose to unranked teams twice in one year and expect to have a shot at a national title. And yet here's Mark, a supposed expert, bandstanding them on national television. In what was previously thought an impossible mission, he actually made Lou Holtz look smart. Inconceivable.

How does VT match up against these "contenders"? Glad you asked. Tech played five ranked teams, beating three and both losses came to the number two teams in the country. A shellacking at the hands of LSU early in the season when Tech was playing with a offense line riddled with inexperience and decimated by injury and a near miss to Boston College that, if yesterday's ACC championship win proved anything, we should have won. The only team that could possibly claim to have "better" loses would be LSU's two triple overtime thrillers. VT ended the regular season with five straight wins, two over ranked opponents, and averaged almost 35 points per game to compliment their top rated defense. That's one less win than Georgia and one more than USC over the same stretch, the hottest teams in the nation. Tech won its conference championship, so that shouldn't be an issue.

Should VT be in the national championship? I don't know. But what really irks me, and the real point of this entire diatribe, is the injustice VT suffers at the hands of the press in terms of coverage. They give air time to wholly unworthy programs with a big name and constantly ignore the school nestled in the hill of Southwest Virginia. I'm not looking for favoritism here, just equal time. Just give VT a profile, a mention, a little time as many of the voters will be influenced by the news reports they watch the press deliver. A perfect example of the problem is Notre Dame. The get national coverage through NBC which televises their pathetic games, all because at some time before I was born Notre Dame was actually good and wasn't simply getting handed BCS bowl bids for nothing more than name recognition. Not to mention that Lou Holtz somehow not so surreptitiously slips in Notre Dame reference in every show, something he should have been fired for, among a multitude of other things, long ago.

How about, instead of pushing personal agendas and party lines, the sports media actually try basing their expert opinions on fact and give every team, big or small, the proper coverage they deserve? Oh, what a wonder world it would be.