Wednesday, October 24, 2007

What a weekend

Among the top 10 scorers in fantasy football this weekend:
Tom Brady and Randy Moss - surprise, surprise. On a side note, does it seem that every fantasy owner who has one of these guys also has the other? In my main league, the league leader lucked out and got both of them. What did he do to deserve such fantasy karma? The only downside for these owners, Patriots bye week they'll be in trouble. Lucky for me (#2 team in my league), I play Alex when Brady and Moss are on the bench.
Rod Bironas, kicker, Titans - 8 field goals. Eight. Ocho. Wow.
Kenny Watson, RB, Bengals - Before the season, Rudi Johnson was touted as a "safe" and "consistent" pick. Bummer.
Sage Rosenfels, QB, Texans - Looking at just a linescore, Matt Schaub owners were probably ecstatic. Never expect too much from a Hoo.

Our boys continued their basic mediocrity across the board this week. No A's, no F's. If this were grade school, Little Scotty Engel and little Eric Karabell wouldn't get taken out to Friendly's for an ice cream treat with these grades.

Under center, both gurus nailed their top pick - Tom Brady. Has Brady overtaken Peyton as the clear-cut #1 fantasy QB this year? Or will it depend on matchups? Should be interesting to see where they go. Karabell did a little better than Engel this week, primarily because Engel ranked Garrard and Schaub in his top 10, and both gunslingers got injured. Jay Cutler, hanging out at the bottom of both gurus' rankings (17/20) put up some good numbers against a strong Pittsburgh defense. In the same game, Ben Roethlisberger (10/10) had his highest fantasy point total since week 1. And what about Drew Brees (13/13)? Is he back? Are the Saints back on track? Look for a good game against the Niners this week.

At running back, Karabell graded out at a C+ and Engel graded out at a B this week. Strong, but not outstanding. Each had at least 15 of their top 25 score 10 or more fantasy points, but only one RB scored more than 20 (Kenny Watson, who Engel had ranked 25 and Karabell didn't have in his top 25). So odds are, no matter how these guys were ranked, scores would have been similar. Consistent, but not superb. LaDanian Tomlinson was on a bye a week after scoring 4 TDs, let's see if he holds the #1 ranking spot when he comes back this weekend.

60 points. 3 wide receivers. 1 team. Unreal. Randy Moss (1/1), Wes Welker (13/15), and Dante Stallworth (NR/22) had huge weeks catching passes from Tom Brady. The Pats offense continues with its "fuck you" attitude. And fantasy owners keep smiling. Think about it. None of these guys were probably picked in the top 3 rounds of your draft, and Welker and Stallworth could have been on your waiver wire up until a few weeks ago. And with games against the Ravens, Steelers, Colts, and Giants still on their schedule, this passing juggernaut has plenty of options to stick it to more teams. Karabell had four big whiffs in his top ten, with Marvin Harrison, Joey Galloway, Plexico Burress, and Roy Williams all scoring less than 5 fantasy points. Engel faired no better, having Burress, Tory Holt, Dwayne Bowe, and Bobby Engram in his top 10.

Two tight ends scoring double-digit fantasy points means a bad week for gurus. Only Dallas Clark (5/2) and Heath Miller (8/7) saved Engel and Karabell from an even worse grade. Speaking of Heath Miller, I lucked out this week. The guy I played in my main fantasy league left Miller on the bench and I won by 7 points. Thanks SNK.

29 points from a kicker. 8 field goals. What is there to say other than "wow". Rod Bironas (5/12) lit up fantasy this week, but the rest of the kickers were average, meaning an average week for our gurus. Kickers are a crapshoot. Good luck.

And finally, we get to the defense. A couple weeks ago, I said the Ravens D was overrated as a fantasy player. I've seen drafts where they went as high as the 4th round. But playing the woeful Buffalo Bills offense, led by rookie Trent Edwards, surely they'd snap out of the funk, right? Wrong. 4 points. Overrated. Limited QB pressure by the Dline = less sacks. A weak and injured secondary = less INTs. Props to Karabell for putting the Seahawks D in his top 10. They were the #1 scoring fantasy D this week, led by Darryl Tapp (former Hokie!)

Thats it for me. See you after week 8. Be sure to bench any Cardinals, Chiefs, Cowboys, Falcons, Ravens or Seahawks players you have. So no Boldin, LJ, Romo, Owens, McGahee or Shawn Alexander. Good luck.

Eric Karabell
QB: C (7.54)
RB: C+ (5.96)
WR: C+ (5.65)
TE: D (3.02)
K: C (4.47)
D/ST: B (5.55)
C

Scott Engel
QB: C (7.35)
RB: B (6)
WR: C+ (5.69)
TE: D (3.33)
K: C (4.06)
D/ST: C (4.55)
C

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Review: The Boys - Week 6 - Kind of

This is a total cop-out and I apologize in advance, but I just don't have time to write a proper review this week without sacrificing the marginal amount of sleep I get to begin with. Who knew preparing for a marathon could be so much work?

My guys, of course deserve better, unfortunately I'm unable to provide it. So, in the biggest sphincter wrenching move I've performed on this website so far, here are the Week 6 rankings. And it's really such a shame because the boys did so well this week.


Brad Evans

Overall Grade: B- (2.7)
Good Calls: 8
Bad Calls: 3

Jamey Eisenberg

Overall Grade: B+ (3.3)
Start 'em Picks:

Start of the Week - C+
QBs - B+
Running Backs -A
Wide Receivers - B+
Tight Ends - D+

Sit 'em Picks:
Sit of the Week - B-
QBs - A
Running Backs - A
Wide Receivers - A
Tight Ends - A

Ron Anish

Overall Grade: C+ (2.4)
Quarterbacks: C+ (2.5)
Running Backs: C+ (2.4)
Wide Recievers: C+ (2.4)
Tight Ends: C- (2.1)

And, it seems that Ed Norton's ass did drive me to distraction and I forgot to put up the Week 5 grades for Jamey and Ron. Here are those grades:

Jamey Eisenberg

Overall Grade: C (2.3)
Start 'em Picks:

Start of the Week - D
QBs - F
Running Backs -D+
Wide Receivers - B+
Tight Ends - D+

Sit 'em Picks:
Sit of the Week - B+
QBs - B+
Running Backs - A
Wide Receivers - D+
Tight Ends - A

Ron Anish

Overall Grade: C (2.0)
Quarterbacks: D+ (1.5)
Running Backs: C- (1.8)
Wide Recievers: C (2.0)
Tight Ends: B- (2.8)

Monday, October 22, 2007

Brown out

Ronnie Brown's done for the season. I lucked out that my Derek Anderson for Ronnie Brown trade was rejected last week. Instead I turned around and moved Derek Anderson and Greg Jennings for Reggie Wayne and Willis McGahee. But that's neither here nor there.

Now the question becomes - are there any Miami Dolphins who are worth owning on a fantasy squad? Cleo Lemon has put up decent numbers, but I don't see him as anything more than a bye-week fill in for a desperate owner.

Friday, October 19, 2007

Running wild (finally)

LaDanian Tomlinson finally stepped it up. Adrian Peterson had (another) monster day. Maurice Jones-Drew, Brian Westbrook, Willis McGahee, Larry Johnson, Edge James, Reggie Bush, Thomas Jones, Lendale Whilte, and Jason Wright all scored 10+ fantasy points. And all were ranked in our gurus' top 25 RBs. In what has been, so far, a year dominated by question marks around the top RBs in the league and a number of strong-performing QBs, week 6 could be the starting line for a mad rush toward the fantasy playoffs.

As a matter of fact, of Eric Karabell and Scott Engel's top 8 RBs this week, the only dud was Shawn Alexander. Normally money in primetime, Alexander got owners a total of 3 fantasy points (based on ESPN scoring. Scott Engel showed a lot of love to Sammy Morris (#9, Karabell had him 14), and Morris responded by getting 1 point (leaving the game with an injury).

At QB and WR, our prognosticators continued with their mediocrity. Engel was the conductor on the Kurt Warner bandwagon, ranking the old gunslinger #3 this week. Warner thanked him by putting up negative fantasy points. The Cardinals went from splitting time between two quarterbacks a few weeks ago to starting ... Tim Rattay. Ouch Cardinals fans. Two other quarterbacks put up goose eggs this week - Steve McNair (didn't play) and Vince Young (left with injury). Not good for your TrueScore® rankings. And apparently neither guru wants to get on the Derek Anderson train yet. Anderson put up 28 points against a crappy Miami defense, yet was ranked 10 and 11 by Karabell and Engel, respectively.

So here's the grade breakdown for Week 6.
Eric Karabell
QB: C (7.05)
RB: A (7.53)
WR: C+ (5.69)
TE: D+ (3.6)
K: C (4.43)
D/ST: B (5.4)
C+

Scott Engel
QB: C (7.3)
RB: A (7.71)
WR: C+ (5.88)
TE: D+ (3.92)
K: C (4.45)
D/ST: B (5.07)
C+

Late-week injury news


Ravens head coach Brian Billick said Todd Heap is likely going to miss the game against Buffalo this weekend. That, and the fact that backup TE Daniel Wilcox is out, means Quinn Sypniewski will start at TE for the Ravens. A 6'6", 270 lb target for a backup QB with a patchwork offensive line? Grab him if you've got Gates or Winslow on a bye this week. Although its up to you if you want a guy who looks like this on your fantasy team.

Also Javon Walker had knee surgery, and is out "indefinitely". Big blow to anyone who has Walker or Jay Cutler.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Review: Anish and Eisenberg - Week 5 - Together Again

In a effort to conserve time, something I seem to have less and less of these days, I'm going to review Ron and Jamey together this week. I don't plan on continuing this way, but I need to catch up.

As much joy as I glean from highlighting our guru's triumphant accomplishments, I've found the real pleasure comes when shedding light on their phenomenal mistakes. Therefore, in that vain, this review will not step foot into the light, but rather thrive in the dark inner workings of our guru's twisted minds. Minds, which seem to have shared bad ideas, through some kind of mind meld or telepathy, this week. If you thought misery loved company before, consider week 5 your indisputable proof.

In order to exorcise the demons, we must name them, one by one, in order of least to most offensive.

Demon 1: The Starting of Brandon Marshall

If you were counting on Baby T.O. to put up some numbers while Javon Walker rested his 80-year-old man's knee with a cadaver tendon in it, your weren't alone. On the dark and stormy night our guru's made their picks, they too tabbed this ill-fated wide receiver to perform admirably. They crowned him with a starting title and sent him on his way, never realizing what destruction their creation was about to unleash on an unsuspecting fantasy world. Long story short, Brandon turned out to be a killer, not of any of my teams but maybe one of yours? Were you left contorted on the kitchen floor, frozen in a gut-wrenching state of eye-bulging agony?

Demon 2: Bowetergist

So you think you made the right moves, picked up the right people and set the best starting lineup possible based on what you read from our gurus. Then, just as you're getting settled in your favorite comfy couch or chair to watch some football, you find out that your lineup was actually built on top of an ancient Indian burial ground and there's a rookie stuck in your TV who should have been in your starting lineup. As your lineup implodes in a brilliant flash of light, you can't stop staring at the blur on the TV that is Dwayne Bowe on his way to 70 receiving yards and a useful fantasy day. In the end, you're left with nothing but a hole in the earth where your team used to be and slime all over your face.
Demon 3: Resident Donald Leevil

Zombies are really hard to stop. Especially when they're reanimated dead people. That was, until know. I've found the cure or the answer if you will. In order to put anything down - dead, undead or other - just get Ron and Jamey to start them. Like they did this week with Donald Lee. Seriously, Lee had at least four catches in each game, weeks 2-4. Then Ron and Jamey caught wind of him and bam! he can't do shit. It's like these guys are the mark of death or something and are using it to completely fuck the rest of us up. If the Umbrella Corporation had known about these guys, they could have saved themselves a lot of time and money.

Demon 4: Culterie

Sometime, because of the past, we convince ourselves that a guy might go crazy, seemingly with superhuman powers, and slay his opposition, leaving defense destruction and a high fantasy score in their wake. When that guy is a quarterback, it can be doubly sweet, since in standard leagues you only get to start one. Jay had a good matchup vs. San Diego. Hell, San Diego hadn't stopped anyone through the air all year. All the signs pointed to a start and our gurus bit hook, line and sinker. They gave the green light and we may or may not have taken it. But, just as things aren't always as they appear, the promising prospect of Jay's big day turned into dismal demise. Maybe this was a case where the past was blinding and they ignored some subtle but telltale signs. Like the fact that a defense that ranked high last year and retained its primary components might wake up against an inexperienced quarterback without his favorite weapon.

Demon 5: Dawn of the Rivers

In this version, our heroes are actually the zombies and the monster is their benching of Phillip Rivers. In case you didn't know, he was the top QB for week 5, putting up 27 fantasy points, including 3 touchdowns. If you're anything like me, that's as many touchdowns as your entire team had. Because of this pick, the only things dead at dawn Monday morning were about a million fantasy teams. If you benched Rivers here, I feel so so sorry for you. Not that he was a guaranteed lock, stock and barrel start but nothing irks me more than leaving points on the bench. Just thinking about it makes me want to kill a couple of zombies. Now where'd I leave the shovel?

If you've ever tried writing something while simultaneously watching Ed Norton take it in the ass from a big musclebound white guy, you know how distracting it can be. Hopefully this review doesn't reflect that. I'm going to curl up in a corner now. Thanks a lot American History X.

Re-grades week 1-5

Week 1
Karabell
QB: B (8.24)
RB: C (5.16)
WR: B (6.09)
TE: F (2.71)
K: D+ (3.68)
D/ST: A (6.05)
C

Engel
QB: C+ (7.84)
RB: C (5.15)
WR: B (6.17)
TE: F (2.54)
K: C (4.04)
D/ST: A (6.22)
C

Week 2
Karabell
QB: B+ (8.67)
RB: B (6.27)
WR: A (7.55)
TE: C (4.26)
K: C+ (4.86)
D/ST: B (5.07)
B

Engel
QB: B+ (8.67)
RB: B (6.21)
WR: A (7.24)
TE: C+ (4.57)
K: C+ (4.83)
D/ST: B (5.33)
B

Week 3
Karabell
QB: C (7.35)
RB: B+ (6.73)
WR: C (5.26)
TE: C (4.4)
K: C (4.06)
D/ST: C (4.18)
C

Engel
QB: D+ (6.98)
RB: B+ (6.64)
WR: C (5.53)
TE: A (6.9)
K: D+ (3.85)
D/ST: D (3.49)
C

Week 4
Karabell
QB: C+ (7.7)
RB: C (5.21)
WR: F (3.36)
TE: C (4.4)
K: D+ (3.66)
D/ST: D (3.14)
D+

Engel
QB: C (7.41)
RB: C (5.4)
WR: F (3.8)
TE: D (3.53)
K: D+ (3.64)
D/ST: D (3.29)
D

Week 5
Karabell
QB: F (5.33)
RB: D (4.01)
WR: F (3.6)
TE: B+ (5.68)
K: C (4.44)
D/ST: B (5.25)
D+

Engel
QB: F (5.44)
RB: D (4.12)
WR: F (3.69)
TE: B+ (5.93)
K: C+ (4.71)
D/ST: B (5.08)
D+

Drumroll please ...

OK as you all know, I've been working on a new grading system. The first one was more of a "gut" grade, which proved to be too subjective and dependent on my mood. The second one was too lenient, and only looked at the top of the rankings each week, which was usually the cream of the crop.

So now we're onto Karabell/Engel Grading System 1.3. This will be a more comprehensive look at the rankings and factors in where each player is ranked.

Here's the breakdown:
Each week, we'll take the top 20 QBs, top 25 RBs and WRs, and top 15 TEs, Ks, and D/STs, as ranked by Eric Karabell and Scott Engel. Then we'll take the number of fantasy points each of those players scored, based on ESPN's fantasy site, and multiply that point total by a multiplier (calculated based on ranking). This will give us a TrueScore® value for that player.

Let's look at Karabell's week 6 rankings, as an example.
Player Points Multiplier TrueScore®
Tom Brady 33 points x 1 33
Carson Palmer 14 points x 0.95 13.3
Tony Romo 13 points x 0.9 11.7

Once we have the TrueScore® value for that player, we'll take the average TrueScore® for that position, for each guru and assign it a grade level.

The grading scale will be:
For QBs
A = 9+
B+ = 8.6 - 8.9
B = 8 - 8.5
C+ = 7.6 - 7.9
C = 7 - 7.5
D+ = 6.6 - 6.9
D = 6 - 6.5
F = < 6

For RBs and WRs
A = 7+
B+ = 6.6 - 6.9
B = 6 - 6.5
C+ = 5.6 - 5.9
C = 5 - 5.5
D+ = 4.6 - 4.9
D = 4 - 4.5
F = < 4

For TEs, Ks and D/STs
A = 6+
B+ = 5.6 - 5.9
B = 5 - 5.5
C+ = 4.6 - 4.9
C = 4 - 4.5
D+ = 3.6 - 3.9
D = 3 - 3.5
F = <3


Ray will use his time machine to go back and update the charts, using grades with the new system.

Down Time

I understand the website is somewhat behind. Unfortunately, I can't do my remaining reviews from last week till I get home tonight and it wouldn't be prudent to start my week 6 reviews before week 5's were done. Also, the graph and charts are slacking and if Jeremy ever decides on a grading scale, I'll update them. The expected date is spring, 2012. Hope you can stick around for that.

Alright, I'm going to get my notes together for week 6. If anyone has any other questions for us to answer, I'll put them up and pass them on to Jeremy as I've filled my quota (1) and have nothing left to give.

Monday, October 15, 2007

Paradise Lost

Have you ever gone to the store, itching to purchase something you thought you'd get a great deal on, only to find out the sale ended the day before? Or gotten to the register, only to be told that the coupon you planned to use has expired? The feeling of disappointment, sometimes pin-prick small and sometimes overwhelmingly large, is always associated with the realization of a missed opportunity.

After Sunday's performance, Brett Favre has left me with this same feeling. Not because his poor performance left two of my teams crippled and floundering but because I had an opportunity, only recognized in hindsight, to use him as my coupon for a discounted rate on something, or someone as the case may be, truly great. He was the perfect sell high candidate, though I was blind to the knowledge, and now am left to lament my lack of foresight.

History should have told me - possibly tried to tell me - but I wouldn't listen. I was too transfixed by the notion that Brett could actually be my No. 1 quarterback for the fantasy season. I pulled the wool over my own eyes by obsessively craving as many top QB as I could get my hands on so as to not end up in the same situation I was in last year - constantly searching the waiver wire for a solid quarterback that never materialized. Sure, Favre wasn't high on many draft lists and I picked him up in the middle to late rounds as a bye week filler. But when he took off, I put my misgivings aside and allowed myself to be lulled into the idea that maybe this was his year. That he was going through some kind of resurgence and that I could ride that resurrection all the way to a fantasy championship.

Brett Favre is going to be Brett Favre. And Brett Favre is not the rational thinking, game managing, conservative passer we were introduced to the first weeks of the season. Brett Favre is the shoot from the hip, toss it up, all or nothing ball slinger who, like a wolf in sheep's clothing, has revealed himself over past two weeks. A zebra can't change his strips and it seems neither can Brett. I apparently simply can't distinguish the sheep from the wolves.

What I should have seen was a guy who, with the help of a couple favorable matchups, came sprinting out of the fantasy box at a pace he couldn't sustain. And now that were in Week 6, and the mile runners are flying past him without so much as a glance in his direction, I'm left feeling more than a bit silly. The beginning of the season is fraught with uncertainty, especially this year with top quarterback performing poorly or getting injured, I should have taken advantage.

Favre wasn't my top quarterback, so why rely on him when he has value as a trade commodity? My fear of being rendered quarterbackless, through injury or other occurrences, left me handcuffed to him, unable to move the one piece in my collection that should have sold quick and fetched a good price.

Now, as his value depreciates with each passing weekend, I find myself wondering why - Why didn't I trade him when I had the chance? - and disparaging an opportunity lost.