Tweaking the system ... again

After crunching the numbers, I'm realizing that the "new" scoring system I came up with wasn't a fair assessment. It's only looking at the top players, and it's not really a good look at the full guru rankings. So I'm expanding it a bit (20 QB, 25 WR, 25 RB, 15 TE, 15 K, 15 DEF), changing the grading scales. Will debut this week, and I'll update all previous weeks so we have a consistent system.

Work in progress, people. Ray's working a time machine to go back in the past to change grades. Maybe while he's back there, I'll have him put $50 on Stanford+39.5 vs. USC for me.

Holy Crap on a Stick

No fucking way! Tell me this guy wasn't paid to write such oblivious shit. I need a new job. And no, I didn't actually read the article. How could I with a title that stupid? This guy has single-handedly lost every shred of creditability ESPN worked two decades to build. Way to go.

Strong tight ends and Ray's other pet names

I think Victor Conte has created an undetectable steroid that helps you pick fantasy footballers. And he sold some to Scott Engel this week.

Here are the Week 5 grades ...

Karabell
QB: A (61.5)
RB: C+ (48.3)
WR: C (42.6)
TE: A (51.6)
K: B (29.2)
D/ST: A (47.7)
Overall: B (3.23 "gpa")

Engel:
QB: A (61.1)
RB: B (54.7)
WR: C+ (46.8)
TE: A (60.9)
K: A (39.5)
D/ST: A (44.3)
Overall: A (3.6 "gpa")

Seriously, where did this come from? I'm going to go back through Weeks 1-3 and use the new grading system on those weeks, maybe my subjective rankings were too tough. Or maybe my new grading system is too lenient. Please comment and let me know what you think, tweaks are possible.

So how did these guys score off the charts? Let's take a look.

Quarterback
Brady, Manning, Romo are the top 3 on each list. 46 points total between the three. Karabell had half his top 10 QBs score 10 or more points, Engel had 6 (snuck Garrard in at #10). Neither gave much love to Phillip Rivers (20/17), who led all QBs in scoring this week. Jason Campbell (11/12) was just on the outside of the top 10, and had a big day against Detroit.

Two big injuries (Leinart and Green) could shake up rankings for the rest of the season. We'll see where Cleo Lemon ranks in week 6.

Running Back
Joseph Addai's scratch from the lineup hurt Karabell, who had him at #2. But anyone who handcuffed him with Kenton Keith (who?) got a nice surprise. Ronnie Brown, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Fast Willie Parker all justified their top draft pick status with 10+ point days. Stephen Jackson continued on his pace to not get 2,500 yards, sitting with an injury (again).

Wide Receiver
A nickname of "Plexiglass" coupled with Eli Manning throwing the ball shouldn't lead to a huge fantasy season for a WR (#2 scoring WR). But it has. Bold move by Karabell ranking Marques Colston #9 this week, even though last year's breakout WR hasn't done squat this season (much like the rest of the New Orleans offense). If you play in a PPR league (I don't), Derek Mason had another huge week for you. 11 catches, 85 yards. And as Ravens fans will tell you, most of those catches were 3 yards short of the first down marker.

Marvin Harrison missed another game, apparently Engel had some knowledge Karabel didn't have. Scotty ranked Harrison #23 this week, while Engel had him at 10. Not sure why Patrick Crayton isn't getting love yet (33/34), dude has had some big games the last few weeks. And props to Hokie Andre Davis (41/33) who's taking advantage of Andre Johnson's injury and gotten some good yards the last few weeks. He could be on your waiver wire, and Johnson is questionable this week.

Tight End
Compiling the stats, all I could think was "Holy shit, they hit this out of the park." Both had 4 of their top 5 ranked TEs score 10 or more points. And the fifth scored 9. It was a good week for fantasy tight ends, as 11 scored 10+ points.

I will get one bash in though. Alex Smith (TB) wasn't even ranked in Engel's top 25 and was the 4th highest scoring TE this week. Karabell ranked him 18.

Kicker
What if both of Nick F'n Folk's 50+ yarders counted? (disgruntled Bills fan here) Grades are a bit deceiving here. Of the top 6 kickers this week (Brown, Folk, Feely, Kasay, Wilkens, Kaeding), only one made either guru's Top 5. Kris Brown had a monster week, with 3 50+ yard kicks! But the gurus did enough to score well, and Engel had 3 of his top 5 score 10 points or more, which is a good week for a kicker.

Defense/Special Teams
I'm going to say it. Ravens defense is overrated. I hope you didn't waste a high pick on them, because they are not bringing it this year. 9 sacks on the year (3 against the woeful Niners offense), 4 INT. They aren't getting pressure on the QB, which lets signal callers pick apart their secondary, which can be suspect even with McAllister and Reed. And the offense isn't going to be bailing them out. Karabell and Engel both ranked BMore #1 this week, and they tied for 12th most fantasy points. Keep starting them (especially against the Rams this week), but don't expect 5th round production out of Rex Ryan's boys for the rest of the season)

Luckily the Pats and Steelers bailed out our gurus this week. The Pats scored a late TD on a fumble recovery against the Browns, the Steelers pitched a shutout against Seattle. Karabell had Tennessee in his top 5, and they scored the sixth most fantasy points this week.

Week 4 rankings

Using the new grading system, here's a drive-by of the week 4 rankings. Week 5 rankings will be out soon with a little more meat to them. I'll also put up a link for a spreadsheet with the rankings, the scoring, etc. so you can double check.

Karabell
QB: A (98.7)
RB: B+ (58.9)
WR: D (35.3)
TE: B (27.2)
K: C (21.8)
D/ST: C (20.9)
Overall: C+ (2.6 "gpa")

Engel
QB: A (95.1)
RB: A (63.7)
WR: C (41.9)
TE: C+ (24.4)
K: C (19.5)
D/ST: B (26.2)
Overall: C+ (2.9 "gpa")

New scoring method for Karabell, Engel

New grading system in place. Here's how it works. I'm going to take the top 10 QBs, RBs, and WRs, and top 5 TE, K, D/ST for each "guru". Each player's points will be multiplied by a ranking value (#1 guy's points x 1, #2 points x 0.9, #3 points x 0.8 and so on).

For QB/RB/WR:
60 + points gets an A
57-59 B+
50-56 B
47-49 C+
40-46 C
37-39 D+
30-36 D
29 and below F

For TE/K/D&ST:
35+ A
32-34 B+
26-31 B
23-25 C+
17-22 C
14-16 D+
8-13 D
8 and below F

From there, we'll go with your standard GPA calculator to get an overall grade each week.

Comment and let me know what you think of the new method. This will give some consistency and subjectivity to these Grand Guru's each week. After the first 2 or 3 weeks we can look back and see how it stacks up, and modify the grades (including changing previous grades) if necessary.

Review: Brad Evans - Week 5 - Ramble on off a Cliff

Holy shit! Let the bells ring from the mountain tops! Strike up the band and let's give Brad a true fantasy football world welcome. What's the cause for such celebration you ask? Brad has amazing went two weeks in a row over .500. It is possibly the greatest accomplishment in the history of mankind. Seriously, I thought it impossible.

Overall Grade: C+ (2.3)

He's on Fire

As you may have guessed from the intro, Brad did well in week 5. Although, I have a feeling some of his suggestion were nothing more than flat out guesses. But success is success, whether luck is involved or not. Really, fantasy football is half luck anyway so I wont penalize him.

I handed out a couple A's this week. Most notably for a start of Brandon Jacobs. I was totally against his pick when I first saw, mainly because I had Derrick Ward on a couple teams and I wanted him to do well instead of Jacobs. Luckily, they both had productive days, with Brandon getting the better and looking impressive in doing it. Brad also sat Chad Pennington even though, on paper, Chad had a good matchup against the porous Giants defense. Of course, the Giants can get pressure on any quarterback, which may have turned you off and why Brad only got a A- and not a solid A. Still, if the diminutive weak-armed lob tosser could have got the ball out of his hand, he should have done well. Seems that wasn't in the cards.

The Definition of Lame

Even on a good week, you should have come to expect some truly dimwitted calls on the part of Brad. This week was no different, though he did manage to avoid the omnipresent F which in and of itself is an accomplishment.

Brad's shocker special of the week, starting Donald Lee of the Packers, ended up as nothing more than a brief spark. I don't think those two fantasy points helped anybody - unless you were down by one and Donald got you the win.

Main gurus, including Brad, have suggested sitting Dwayne Bowe. To them, I have one thing to say, Get on the train before it leaves your ass behind. Seriously, this guy puts up numbers no matter who or how bad the quarterback is. The Chiefs have to throw the ball every once in a while and when they do, there are only two targets on the field, Tony and Dwayne. That's a 50% chance of getting the ball. Not too shabby for the rook. Even with last week's 7 point performance, at least he's dependable and there's always the chance of a touchdown. What it all boils down to is, he should be considered a weekly start in any league and you could do a lot worse. If, by some strange occurrence, he's on the waiver wire, for the love of God pick him up. But enough with gay Dwayne Bowe man love.

The Breakdown

Good Calls: 7
Bad Calls: 4

I wonder if Brad is still getting all the hatemail? I forgot to check this week.

Review: Ron Anish - Week 4 - Dud List

Let me just put this out there before I start. This review is not going to be good, mostly because after running 11 miles I can barely hold my head up. If your not one of the privileged few and are asking yourself, "What in the hell did he run 11 miles for?" Well, I'll tell you. I am in the unenviable position of being slotted to run a marathon at the end of the month. Really, 11 miles should be a walk in the park at this point but my training hit a snag when I went down with a knee injury and had to sit out a month and a half waiting for it to heal. I just started running again three weeks ago and tonight was my first foray into the double digits in two months. Needless to say, I'm a tiny bit tired right now. I'll try to muster something up for Mr. Anish but I make no promises.

Overall Grade: C (2.2)

The Good

Starting Brett Favre in week 4 was a good call, though I'm not sure why Ron doesn't have him on the stud list. He's only been one of the best, highest scoring, most consistent QB's in the league this year. What more does a guy have to do?

Sticking with the QB's but flipping to the pine riding side of things, Philip Rivers performed just as our guru expected racking up a gaudy 4 fantasy points. I pray to God no one out there is starting this loser. Wait, I'm being unduly harsh. Rivers does shoulder some of the burden but can you really point a finger any where but Norv's direction? I can't think of another situation where a new coach inherits a great team, one with the best record in the NFL, and systematically runs - or doesn't run, if you know what I mean - them into the ground to start the season. I thought firing that guy with the long name I don't feel like looking up or typing was a bad decision when the San Diego higher-ups decided to do it in the offseason and I think you can see that as usual, I was right. Of course they did perform much better in week 5 but I can't bring myself to trust them yet. Put together a streak of a couple games, then come talk to me.

Benching Warrick Dunn and Tatum Bell, you already knew that right? Atlanta's running game is in shambles right now and Martz has never had any use for a running back who can't catch a ball out of the backfield. Fearless prediction: neither of these guys goes shit all year.

Ron was hitting on sits, but missing on the starts in every category. Maybe that was just indicative of the week, but at least he was good for something with sit picks like Joey Galloway and Ronald Curry - two players you might have used with decent matchups but shouldn't have.

The Bad and The Ugly

I harped on it in my last review and by the grace of God Ron listened, though I doubt it was because of my prompting, and updated his Stud lists. Maybe not exactly the way I would have went but it's the thought that counts, right?

Well, it seems those updates didn't quite work for our boy this week. In the long run, I think they were the right moves, there was simply a lot of under-performing in week 4, which I know screwed a good many of us. Ron earned no better than a C+ on any stud list, and I think I'm pretty generous in the grading of those.

Sidenote: The fact that I haven't given anyone an A or B all year for their overall grade is a bit concerning. I thought the gurus would do better. I was wrong. I've got a system and I'm sticking to it. I may have to come up with some kind of curve if these guys keep sucking but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. I'm confident someone can pull out a good week. The sun shines on a dog's ass every once in a while, right?

Speaking of bad, I'm watching the Monday night game as I write. Owens owners, how ya feeling right now? One pass for fourteen yards against a bruised and beaten secondary halfway through the 3rd quarter just isn't going to cut it. I guess Romo throwing four interceptions isn't helping anything. Ugh, that's 8 points down the drain. There may be a changing of the guard at the top of the QB rankings after this week. Buy low candidate? I wish.

The Breakdown

Quarterbacks: C+ (2.3)
Running Backs: C (2.0)
Wide Recievers: C (2.0)
Tight Ends: C+ (2.5)

Keep Waiting

In a note unrelated to anything football, my apologies go out to the fans of the Cubs and Phillies. I'm sure Karabell is inconsolable right now. Your joy was so short lived. I can't say that I'm not happy with the outcome, but it would have been nice for you to at least get one win. If you go to the prom but don't dance with one girl, does it really count that you were there? If you went to the moon but didn't set foot on it, did you really go to the moon or were you just in space a little longer than most? Did you just get a little closer look than everyone else?

As for my final review of week 4, I know I've been deliquent. I'll have it out tomorrow. Today, I'm going to do was I do best - get drunk, maybe a little high and watch some football. Hell yeah!

That's Just Sick

STD have long been thorn in the side of our collective existence. AIDS could be considered a pandemic, herpes is gross and disgusting and gonorrhea just plain burns. But there is an even more insidious form of infection making its way through the fantasy football world, working over team after team affecting millions. What is this infection you ask? It is what we thought it was, GTD or Game Time Decisions.

Those of you who have been infected by this debilitating disease know the frustration and sense of helplessness that are its primary symptoms. In rare cases where the infection attacks all fassets of a team, a losing week is almost a certainty. And in the most extreme cases can even lead to the death of a season. Unfortunately, although rarely permanent, there is no fast cure and many times the illness must be left to run its course.

So what can we do?

The best way to fight is to never get it in the first place. And that happens by getting vaccinated in the form of depth during the draft process. Depth is so important. The chances of a manager making through the entire season without a significant injury are slim to none. If you fancy yourself lucky enough to not need depth on your team then maybe you should go play on the WPT and win some real money. For the rest of us pedestrians, I say get some decent backups.

But all that's hindsight at this point, right? The draft's over and were in the fifth week of the season, the second week since the byes started dropping. So what now? Waiver wire work is mandatory, finding and securing the backups of players who have went down or soon may is essential and a lot of prayer to a nameless, faceless God, who if he really cared would have never given you this affliction in the first place, couldn't hurt.

This entire diatribe has but one point. Check your lineups on Sunday to make sure the assholes you hate with a passion from the day you drafted them are actually going to step on the field of play. Don't get laid up with a GTD.

Review: Brad Evans - Week 4 - Rule of Wheee!

Finally, someone other than Ron goes over .500 on his picks for a week. Now I know what Tuesday's fireworks were for, Brad had a good week. And it couldn't have come at a better time. With his performance slipping weekly (or weakly?), it looked like he was surely headed to the gutter. I was close to recommending you don't look at his picks until further notice. But it seems he may be of use to us yet. Don't get too excited, I'm going to need some consistency first, before I blow this load.

Either way, I'm giving Brad back the nickname Yahoo! never took from him, Mr. Exclusive. And now, an exclusive look into Mr. Exclusive's week that was.

Overall Grade: C+ (2.4)

He's on Fire

Brad went 7 and 4 over the weekend, much better than any previous week. He's still hovering just below 50% on the year but another couple of weeks like this one and he'll get to greener pastures.

In fact, I'm extremely impressed with his flames for the week. He didn't puss out, take the easy path and choose the monsters of fantasy. He traveled the road less taken, walked the line and held up his part of the deal. Thank God someone did. I can feel my faith being restored as I write this. Although, looking at next weeks picks, I think I'll be back to singing REM's Losing My Religion. But I digress.

Chad Pennington, Shaun McDonald, Greg Jennings, Brian Greise, Brian Leonard and Ron Dayne made up his flaming fantasy force. Both wide receivers and quarterbacks performed like good little soldiers, provided their fantasy generals with usable amounts of ammo. The running backs, not so much. But to win a war you've got to lose a few good men right?

Sticking with the military theme (thanks Kellen Winslow), I don't know if Brad has any sniper training but I'm starting to think he might. Calling for a sit of Marvin "The Man" Harrison in any format is a bold play indeed. It makes me think he may have had something to do with Marvin's injury. Was Brad possibly the shooter on the grassy knoll? Could Marvin's knee problems have been cause by a bullet? We may need to get the FBI involved or at least Mystery Inc.

The Definition of Lame

I'm hesitant to say anything disparaging about Brad because I'm worried he might dome pop me from 300 yards as I walk across the office parking lot to my car. It would be a cool way to go, so I'll take my chances.

Brad, how in the hell could you suggest using Brian "I'm Worthless" Leonard last week. Good God man, get some sense. If Steve Jackson can't run behind that line, it's amazing Brian didn't die 2 minutes in. There's no way the Rams, as team, do anything this year, fantasy or real. Just please don't suggest we use Gus this coming weekend. I don't think I could take that.

Some of the greatest men in history have rose to prominence by fighting the social normal to enact real change for the betterment of everyone. George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Martin Luther King, Ron Howard. So I can't fault you for going against the norm on this one. Oh wait, yes I can. Picking Matt Hasselbeck to flop last week was ludicrous and I'm not talking about rap even white people can enjoy. Everyone, and I mean everyone, else predicted Matt to have a good week against San Fran, and guess what, they were right. It's called majority rules and I'm glad I went with the majority and not with you in leagues that I have Hasselbeck. By the way, Hasselbeck is one of the most consistent QB's in fantasy so I would suggest never putting him in the lame category again. Even against a tough Pittsburgh defense. He's simply too good not to play.

The Breakdown

Good Calls: 7
Bad Calls: 4

And just in case you missed it, here's what Brad's most supportive fan has to say:

Are you really that dumb? I mean, you're not smart, you act like a five-year old, and your predictions aren't anything special. They are closer to special-ed. The only sports you ever probably played are golf and pocket pool. Every week I end up watching the pre-game fantasy thing on Yahoo! and I don't go by anything you say and that's why I win. I have friends just like you and I beat them every year in everything. Tell your boss that if he wants someone who actually knows sports and can predict better than you to e-mail me. Do me a favor and I will do you one by not busting on you anymore. That is all.

– Jim, Lansford, PA

If you were Brad, why would you possibly post this? Let me know in the comments or try to top this guy. Whatever you want.