Stepping on Land Mines

With two of my three drafts in the books I thought it might be a fine time to take a step back and reflect on events transpired. In doing so, however, I found myself being drawn back to one gut-wrenching question: Who's going to bomb this year?

Everyone wants to find this year's Colston or the diminutive Jones-Drew in the hay stake. Most of time it's a dumb luck shots in the dark. Hell, I picked Colston up off the waiver wire last year in week three. There are always diamonds in the rough to be found, uncovered in the draft or not. If you take a shot and it doesn't pan out, all you can do is throw your hands up and try again. You weren't counting on the guy and you're fantasy season certainly wasn't resting in his hand. He was your dollar Powerball ticket not your nest egg investment.

Just as there are always diamonds in the rough, the universal in a constant quest for balance and duality, provides us each season with some that look like diamonds but, in reality, turn out to be cubic zirconium - a peddler's wares we somehow allowed ourselves to be swindled into buying. These are the guys you draft with a smile on face only to see that smile change to an o-face of twisted rage and pain as you beat your computer monitor into liquid crystals and dust. You're hands bloodied and throbbing, you raise a haggard gaze to heavens and curse God for ever birthing you into such a world.

Maybe I'm being a bit dramatic, but I think you get the point. So, in an attempt to save everyone a trip to hospital and to keep some money in the pockets it belongs, here's my top four busts for the season (In no particular order):

1. Travis Henry

Everyone is so high on him I can't bring myself to believe that he's not going to disappoint. He'll be the LOTR: Return of the King of this NFL season. Denver has been turning no name running backs into stars since the dawn of time it seems, but Travis has already made a name for himself. Could it be possible the reason Denver is so successful with the new guy is that the new guy is fresh, like a ball of clay fit for molding? He's a clean slate, ready and willing to graft himself into a new system, absorbing as much knowledge of zone blocking schemes as he can. If you think Mr. Henry is clean slate, you've got another thing coming. Over the past three seasons he's post 10, 10 and 14 games played respectively. That's three years without a full workload and I think this year is bound to be a forth. And, sure, he finished up strong last year, taking over the starting tailback spot from an injured Chris Brown, but maybe that hurts his chances this year of staying healthy. Will he be serviceable this year? Maybe. But I don't think he'll be exceptional, especially for where he's going in most drafts.

2. Reggie Bush

I'll stick with the running back theme and go with Reggie. And before you say it, I do think he's going to be good. Possibly really good. So, in that respect, maybe he's not a bust in the traditional sense of the word. I'm including him on the list because I'm concerned about the highly infectious strain of Bushitis that seems to be making its way through offices and homes around the nation. The primary symptoms are, but not limited to, placing Reggie Bush in overall top five rankings or even putting him in the top five for running backs. Seriously, top five? That's a little extreme for someone mired in a running back by committee situation, don't you think? Last year he ended up being the 13th best running back, based on standard scoring yahoo! leagues. Pretty damn impressive for a rookie. But if you look at the numbers, 742 of his very nice 1307 yards were through the air, making him basically a glorified wide receiver. Still, he did tally 6 rushing touchdowns, mostly the result of long runs. You know he's not going to get the goal line carriers with Deuce around and his 3.6 yards/carry really isn't that great. I do think he'll improve this season. Sophomore slumps don't happen to people with the kind of talent that Reggie has. I just don't see him getting an increased workload or used in different ways than last year, making his gains marginal. He'll rank somewhere between 10 and 13 when it's all said and done - a good back to have but not a top five pick in any sense.

3. Vince Young

I had to force myself off running backs, because I am somewhat obsessed with the position at the moment. What can I say? I'm an old school running back drafter in the first two rounds. I count them as my most important picks. I've never tried the back to back wide receiver strategy and I've never taken a QB in the first round - mainly because will not draft Peyton Manning under an conditions (it's a personal vendetta). However, I have witnessed the demise of team due to poor quarterback play. Your honor, allow me to introduce into evidence "Exhibit A", my 2006 fantasy team. Hasselbeck went down just in time for Eli to shove shit right in my face. That one hurt and I made a promise to myself that I'd always make sure to draft one of the top tier quarterbacks in an attempt to insulate myself as best as humanly possible from that situation.

That's why this year, I won't be drafting Vince. I don't necessarily believe he'll get hurt, though with the way he runs it's certainly a possibility - see Vick's entire career. I do, however, believe he's in for a bit of slump. For one, opposing teams have a year's worth of film on him. They'll game plan, prepare and practice for Vince this year. He embarrassed a couple teams last year. They'll be ready for him this time around. Second, his supporting cast is decidedly shaky at best. Brandon Jones sits at the top of the WR depth chart. A guy with fifty catches to his name. He's an unknown quantity at best. The names right below Jone's don't conjure images of Jerry Rice either. Givens, Moulds and Roydell "I can't believe that's a name" Williams are all interchangeably blah, possibly serviceable wideouts. There's not a true number two in the bunch. Vince has a tandem of paper machete running backs to hand the rock to, neither of which can keep a defense honest and off Vince's backside. His tight ends are pedestrian and I didn't recognize one name on the O-line aside from Kevin Mawae, who I think is the only one in the past five years to have been selected to a Pro Bowl and it was with the Jets back in '04. Combine all those factors with a defense that's not going to get Vince's offense on the field much - they will be playing from behind a good bit, which could be a plus - and my confidence is hardly bolstered.

4. Torry Holt

It's tearing me up inside because I really like this guys. I don't want to put him on this list but I have to go with my gut. Truthfully, the only reason he's on here is his health. I don't like it when knees swell up. I do not get the warm fuzzies when a top flight wide receiver tells the press that his knee is at 70%. It's true that Torry at seventy percent is better than half the league's wide receivers at 100%. But I'd say, as someone who's had some knee problems, that if Torry's knee is at 70%, he's more like 50 or 60% overall. Knee pain is really hard to play through. It make a player tentative in his cuts and reduces speed, all of which throws off the timing of plays and disrupts the wavelength between QB and wide receiver. I was worried about him after the knee surgery and now I feel my concern is justified. I hope he shows up and has a great season this year. He's a good guy and deserves it. But with where he's going in most drafts, there's no way I could trust that knee. Luckily, wide receivers rarely effect fantasy enough to spell team decimation but being shorthanded in the WR department can handcuff a team at playoff time.

I'll leave the rounding out of the top five to you guys with a fifth pick. Or just decry my picks and make fun of my manhood, whatever.