Monday, October 15, 2007

Paradise Lost

Have you ever gone to the store, itching to purchase something you thought you'd get a great deal on, only to find out the sale ended the day before? Or gotten to the register, only to be told that the coupon you planned to use has expired? The feeling of disappointment, sometimes pin-prick small and sometimes overwhelmingly large, is always associated with the realization of a missed opportunity.

After Sunday's performance, Brett Favre has left me with this same feeling. Not because his poor performance left two of my teams crippled and floundering but because I had an opportunity, only recognized in hindsight, to use him as my coupon for a discounted rate on something, or someone as the case may be, truly great. He was the perfect sell high candidate, though I was blind to the knowledge, and now am left to lament my lack of foresight.

History should have told me - possibly tried to tell me - but I wouldn't listen. I was too transfixed by the notion that Brett could actually be my No. 1 quarterback for the fantasy season. I pulled the wool over my own eyes by obsessively craving as many top QB as I could get my hands on so as to not end up in the same situation I was in last year - constantly searching the waiver wire for a solid quarterback that never materialized. Sure, Favre wasn't high on many draft lists and I picked him up in the middle to late rounds as a bye week filler. But when he took off, I put my misgivings aside and allowed myself to be lulled into the idea that maybe this was his year. That he was going through some kind of resurgence and that I could ride that resurrection all the way to a fantasy championship.

Brett Favre is going to be Brett Favre. And Brett Favre is not the rational thinking, game managing, conservative passer we were introduced to the first weeks of the season. Brett Favre is the shoot from the hip, toss it up, all or nothing ball slinger who, like a wolf in sheep's clothing, has revealed himself over past two weeks. A zebra can't change his strips and it seems neither can Brett. I apparently simply can't distinguish the sheep from the wolves.

What I should have seen was a guy who, with the help of a couple favorable matchups, came sprinting out of the fantasy box at a pace he couldn't sustain. And now that were in Week 6, and the mile runners are flying past him without so much as a glance in his direction, I'm left feeling more than a bit silly. The beginning of the season is fraught with uncertainty, especially this year with top quarterback performing poorly or getting injured, I should have taken advantage.

Favre wasn't my top quarterback, so why rely on him when he has value as a trade commodity? My fear of being rendered quarterbackless, through injury or other occurrences, left me handcuffed to him, unable to move the one piece in my collection that should have sold quick and fetched a good price.

Now, as his value depreciates with each passing weekend, I find myself wondering why - Why didn't I trade him when I had the chance? - and disparaging an opportunity lost.

2 comments:

Dk said...

Still have the Lil' Manning? I suppose it's too late to switch for week 6.

Here's the new Dk dilemna:
RB
W Parker (Pit)
S Morris (NE)
B Jacobs (NYG)
M Barber (Dal)

Parker is the stud... but who do you play No. 2 - matchups? I have half of a committee for 3 RBBC. I bet one of them has a good week every week --- but which one --- which week? Where's my time machine?

FWIW - This week went with Jacobs and Morris (Parker's on bye).

The Pack could still pick you up ... don't throw Brett to the dogs so fast. Kitna only had 2 pts against the Skins last week, Favre had 5.

Besides, unless you have Brady, P. Manning or Romo ...

Also - on your grading system --- when these "gurus" rank people - do they rank for the upcoming week (potentially useful) or for the season (waste - I don't want to see anybody in the top five who's on a bye week) and how do you know?

Calitri said...

As far as the guru rankings, they rank by week for the most part. Karabell only does a weekly ranking and Engel does both a weekly and season ranking.

My guys don't rank and Jeremy covers the aforementioned two that do, so really he's the expert. I only use Karabell's Start'em/Sit'em he releases on Fridays, which he writes in addition to the rankings.

Concerning the running backs, you could be in a much worse situation. I haven't heard any reports about Morris other than speculation, but from the looks of him lying on the field yesterday, I'd say he may have broken his collar bone. If not, it might have just been a stinger and he'll be back. If he's out, then your decision is made easier, though less attractive.

I really don't think you can go too wrong with either of the remaining two. Jacobs runs behind a good offensive line as does Barber. Depending on how they use Jacobs tonight could determine whether he's back to must-start status or not. Yesterday, they alternated series between Barber and Jones and I'd expect that to continue for the rest of the year, barring an injury.

So, that pretty much leaves you to play the matchups and mostly likely try to decipher between a 10 point performance and a 20 point performance. Like I said, it could be worse. Obviously, if one of your guys is going up against a top flight run defense, you play the other. If they're playing similar opponents, take a stab at it. I think that's all you can really do.

I left your time machine at Joe's but you'll have to win a turtle race to claim it. Good luck.